Holmes County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Holmes County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.4, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Holmes County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 49.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.21 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $318K in expected annual loss and about 78.44 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Holmes County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Holmes County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 20 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Holmes County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $9M |
| Lightning | Medium | 78.44 / yr | $318K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.42 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 25.15 / yr | $89K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.85 / yr | $227K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $80K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.06 / yr | $339K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.69 / yr | $157K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $36 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.04 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Holmes County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (20), Severe Storm (7), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Fred |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Holmes County?
Holmes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Holmes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $9M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $318K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Holmes County compare to other Florida counties?
Holmes County ranks #53 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Holmes County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Holmes County since 1975, most often 20 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Holmes County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.