Madison County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 47th
Madison County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.4, 47th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Madison County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 47th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $278K in expected annual loss and about 79.46 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $77K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Madison County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Madison County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.25 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Medium | 79.46 / yr | $278K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $77K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.42 / yr | $621K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.48 / yr | $206K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $565K |
| Drought | Low | 14.99 / yr | $34K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $68K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.27 / yr | $132K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.13 / yr | $42K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $52 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (17), Severe Storm (7), Tropical Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 47th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $278K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $77K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Florida counties?
Madison County ranks #55 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1973, most often 17 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.