Marion County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
Marion County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.7, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $128M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Marion County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 94.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 95th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 88.95 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $53M in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $128M in expected annual loss for a population of 376K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Marion County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 19 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Marion County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 88.95 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.25 / yr | $53M |
| Tornado | High | 1.10 / yr | $15M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.16 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $42M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.80 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.07 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $417K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 16.07 / yr | $69K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.98 / yr | $1K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.18 / yr | $55K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (19), Tropical Storm (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Hurricane (High, $53M EAL), Tornado (High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Florida counties?
Marion County ranks #21 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1968, most often 19 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $128M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.