Tulare County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Tulare County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.0, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $214M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Tulare County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 97.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 5.42 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $130M in expected annual loss and about 3.04 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $214M in expected annual loss for a population of 473K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tulare County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Tulare County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2023.
Among 58 California counties, Tulare County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | High | 5.42 / yr | $30M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.04 / yr | $130M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $10M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.06 / yr | $36M |
| Landslide | High | 70.09 / yr | $433K |
| Lightning | High | 15.72 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.10 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 83.25 / yr | $1M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $108 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.30 / yr | $427K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.04 / yr | $209K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 13.19 / yr | $18K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tulare County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (8), Severe Storm (4), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Sqf Fire Complex |
| August 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2017 | Fire | Pier Fire |
| August 2016 | Fire | Cedar Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tulare County?
Tulare County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tulare County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $30M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $130M EAL), Wildfire (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tulare County compare to other California counties?
Tulare County ranks #21 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tulare County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Tulare County since 1967, most often 8 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tulare County's $214M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.