Merced County
California — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Merced County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.9, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $205M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 74.16 / yr | $70M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.09 / yr | $62M |
| Heat Wave | High | 10.06 / yr | $10M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.86 / yr | $59M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 6.60 / yr | $739K |
| Hail | Low | 0.14 / yr | $403K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.94 / yr | $2K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.22 / yr | $322K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.04 / yr | $151K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Merced County?
Merced County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Merced County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $70M EAL), Earthquake (High, $62M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Merced County compare to other California counties?
Merced County ranks #22 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Merced County's $205M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.