Kern County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Kern County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.9, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $417M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Kern County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Kern County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $38M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $43M in expected annual loss and about 7.49 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $184M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $417M in expected annual loss for a population of 909K.
Beyond physical exposure, Kern County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Kern County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 17 for fire events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Borel Fire (fire), declared in July 2024.
Among 58 California counties, Kern County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $38M |
| Heat Wave | High | 7.49 / yr | $43M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.08 / yr | $184M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.64 / yr | $147M |
| Landslide | High | 128.61 / yr | $758K |
| Drought | High | 96.74 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 8.04 / yr | $761K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.43 / yr | $190K |
| Hail | Low | 0.10 / yr | $414K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $336 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.06 / yr | $399K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $186K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Kern County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Borel Fire in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (17), Flood (7), Severe Storm (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Fire | Borel Fire |
| November 2023 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Hilary |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2021 | Fire | French Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Earthquake | Earthquakes |
| March 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| August 2016 | Fire | Cedar Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Kern County?
Kern County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Kern County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $38M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $43M EAL), Earthquake (High, $184M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Kern County compare to other California counties?
Kern County ranks #15 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Kern County had?
FEMA records 40 federal disaster declarations for Kern County since 1967, most often 17 for fire events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Borel Fire, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Kern County's $417M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.