Monterey County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Monterey County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.7, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $402M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Monterey County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $81M in expected annual loss and about 94.43 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 129.63 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $182M in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $402M in expected annual loss for a population of 439K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monterey County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Monterey County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2024.
Among 58 California counties, Monterey County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 94.43 / yr | $81M |
| Landslide | High | 129.63 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.16 / yr | $182M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $17M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.82 / yr | $109M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.46 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Medium | 2.67 / yr | $341K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.10 / yr | $422K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $712K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $120K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $101 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.13 / yr | $404K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $75K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.50 / yr | $4K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monterey County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (8), Fire (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| August 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2020 | Fire | Carmel Fire |
| August 2020 | Fire | River Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monterey County?
Monterey County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monterey County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $81M EAL), Landslide (High, $5M EAL), Earthquake (High, $182M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monterey County compare to other California counties?
Monterey County ranks #16 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monterey County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Monterey County since 1967, most often 8 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monterey County's $402M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.