Santa Barbara County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Santa Barbara County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.0, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $477M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Santa Barbara County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 99.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Santa Barbara County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very High risk — $51M in expected annual loss and about 60.37 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $65M in expected annual loss and about 83.14 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $168M in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $477M in expected annual loss for a population of 448K.
Beyond physical exposure, Santa Barbara County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Santa Barbara County has received 43 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 15 for fire events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2024.
Among 58 California counties, Santa Barbara County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very High | 60.37 / yr | $51M |
| Drought | Very High | 83.14 / yr | $65M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.05 / yr | $168M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $24M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.54 / yr | $167M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.29 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 4.34 / yr | $243K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $129K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $343K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $98 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $69K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $89K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $20K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.78 / yr | $185 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Santa Barbara County has received 43 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (15), Flood (13), Severe Storm (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| October 2021 | Fire | Alisal Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2019 | Fire | Cave Fire |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 43 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Santa Barbara County?
Santa Barbara County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Santa Barbara County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very High, $51M EAL), Drought (Very High, $65M EAL), Earthquake (High, $168M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Santa Barbara County compare to other California counties?
Santa Barbara County ranks #14 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Santa Barbara County had?
FEMA records 43 federal disaster declarations for Santa Barbara County since 1969, most often 15 for fire events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Santa Barbara County's $477M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.