Sebastian County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Sebastian County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.8, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $58M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Sebastian County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 24.53 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.38 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $58M in expected annual loss for a population of 128K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sebastian County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Sebastian County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Sebastian County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.32 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 24.53 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | High | 0.38 / yr | $10M |
| Lightning | High | 61.37 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.37 / yr | $425K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.21 / yr | $25M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Low | 5.78 / yr | $427K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.37 / yr | $598K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $64K |
| Drought | Low | 16.78 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sebastian County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sebastian County?
Sebastian County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sebastian County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $8M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sebastian County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Sebastian County ranks #7 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sebastian County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Sebastian County since 1968, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sebastian County's $58M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.