Sebastian County

Arkansas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Medium

Composite Risk Score

86.8

National percentile: 87th

Sebastian County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.8, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $58M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $58M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 128K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Ice Storm
Very High $4M/yr
Heat Wave
Medium $8M/yr
Tornado
High $10M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm Very High 1.32 / yr $4M
Heat Wave Medium 24.53 / yr $8M
Tornado High 0.38 / yr $10M
Lightning High 61.37 / yr $1M
Winter Weather High 6.37 / yr $425K
Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr $1M
Cold Wave Medium 0.79 / yr $5M
Riverine Flood Medium 3.21 / yr $25M
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr $3M
Hail Low 5.78 / yr $427K
Landslide Very Low 0.25 / yr $2K
Strong Wind Medium 4.37 / yr $598K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr $64K
Drought Low 16.78 / yr $53K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sebastian County?

Sebastian County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Sebastian County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $8M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Sebastian County compare to other Arkansas counties?

Sebastian County ranks #7 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sebastian County's $58M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.