Sebastian County
Arkansas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Sebastian County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.8, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $58M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.32 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 24.53 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | High | 0.38 / yr | $10M |
| Lightning | High | 61.37 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.37 / yr | $425K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.21 / yr | $25M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Low | 5.78 / yr | $427K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.37 / yr | $598K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $64K |
| Drought | Low | 16.78 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sebastian County?
Sebastian County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sebastian County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $8M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sebastian County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Sebastian County ranks #7 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sebastian County's $58M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.