Craighead County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Craighead County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.8, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $90M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Craighead County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $36M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $90M in expected annual loss for a population of 111K.
Beyond physical exposure, Craighead County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Craighead County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 12 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Craighead County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.28 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $36M |
| Tornado | High | 0.55 / yr | $18M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 20.05 / yr | $5M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.26 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | High | 8.95 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.05 / yr | $356K |
| Lightning | High | 57.35 / yr | $754K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.46 / yr | $15M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.93 / yr | $912K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.52 / yr | $5K |
| Hail | Low | 3.36 / yr | $411K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $119K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Craighead County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Flood (5), Tornado (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| May 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Craighead County?
Craighead County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Craighead County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $36M EAL), Tornado (High, $18M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Craighead County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Craighead County ranks #3 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Craighead County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Craighead County since 1968, most often 12 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Craighead County's $90M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.