Garland County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Garland County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.3, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $57M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Garland County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.24 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.81 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $57M in expected annual loss for a population of 100K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garland County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Garland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Garland County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.24 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.81 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | High | 0.52 / yr | $12M |
| Hail | High | 5.48 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 17.16 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.55 / yr | $52K |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.21 / yr | $311K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $28M |
| Lightning | High | 65.07 / yr | $833K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $155K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $182K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $575K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 13.74 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2013 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garland County?
Garland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Tornado (High, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garland County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Garland County ranks #4 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garland County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Garland County since 1973, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garland County's $57M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.