Marion County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Marion County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.0, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Marion County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Marion County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.09 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 1.83 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Marion County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Marion County ranks #49 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 2.09 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.83 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $402K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $77K |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.90 / yr | $225K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.26 / yr | $388K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.81 / yr | $463K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.40 / yr | $966K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.58 / yr | $47K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.47 / yr | $48K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 10.83 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $12K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Marion County ranks #49 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1969, most often 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.