Polk County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Polk County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 46.1, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Polk County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 46.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $759K in expected annual loss and about 0.90 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $356K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $603K in expected annual loss and about 5.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Polk County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.90 / yr | $759K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $356K |
| Hail | Medium | 5.23 / yr | $603K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.45 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.33 / yr | $574K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.52 / yr | $72K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.20 / yr | $215K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.85 / yr | $462K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $247K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.82 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $33K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $259K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 20.46 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Severe Ice Storm (4), Tornado (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 46.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $759K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $356K EAL), Hail (Medium, $603K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Polk County ranks #50 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1968, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.