Madison County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Madison County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.1, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Madison County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $894K in expected annual loss and about 1.88 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $18K in expected annual loss and about 2.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Madison County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 13 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Madison County ranks #51 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.88 / yr | $894K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.01 / yr | $18K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.00 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $154K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.84 / yr | $90K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.60 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.86 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $267K |
| Hail | Low | 6.66 / yr | $201K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.18 / yr | $392K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.79 / yr | $574K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.13 / yr | $141K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.14 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $894K EAL), Landslide (Low, $18K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Madison County ranks #51 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1969, most often 13 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.