Howard County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Howard County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.5, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Howard County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Howard County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $603K in expected annual loss and about 4.78 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $347K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Howard County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Howard County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 7 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Howard County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.57 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.78 / yr | $603K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $347K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 17.53 / yr | $369K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $92K |
| Lightning | Low | 65.00 / yr | $185K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.33 / yr | $898K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.93 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $372K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.74 / yr | $42K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $202K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.95 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Howard County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Tornado (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Howard County?
Howard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Howard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $603K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $347K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Howard County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Howard County ranks #47 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Howard County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Howard County since 1968, most often 7 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Howard County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.