Lawrence County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.9, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lawrence County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lawrence County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.20 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $876K in expected annual loss and about 5.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lawrence County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Lawrence County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.20 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 5.00 / yr | $876K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.32 / yr | $919K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $712K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.42 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.42 / yr | $54K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.82 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $53K |
| Lightning | Low | 57.02 / yr | $165K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $242 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.59 / yr | $45K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL), Drought (Medium, $876K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Lawrence County ranks #25 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1969, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.