Denali Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Denali Borough faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.3, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Denali Borough at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 28.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Denali Borough's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $35K in expected annual loss and about 30.97 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $806K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Denali Borough has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Denali Borough has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 5 for severe storm events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Bear Creek Fire (fire), declared in June 2025.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Denali Borough ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.50 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Low | 30.97 / yr | $35K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $806K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.11 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $133 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.33 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.68 / yr | $30K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $361K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 27.20 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $86 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Denali Borough has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Bear Creek Fire in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Fire (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Fire | Bear Creek Fire |
| June 2022 | Fire | Clear Fire |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| September 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| October 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| November 2002 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| February 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Denali Borough?
Denali Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Denali Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $6M EAL), Landslide (Low, $35K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $806K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Denali Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Denali Borough ranks #15 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Denali Borough had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Denali Borough since 2000, most often 5 for severe storm events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Bear Creek Fire, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Denali Borough's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.