Smyth County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Smyth County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.8, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Smyth County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Smyth County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 4.58 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 1.29 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 1.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 30K.
Beyond physical exposure, Smyth County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Smyth County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Smyth County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 4.58 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.29 / yr | $30K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $371K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 6.40 / yr | $229K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $122K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.53 / yr | $402K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.60 / yr | $150K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.38 / yr | $39K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.35 / yr | $36K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $195K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.42 / yr | $51K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Smyth County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Smyth County?
Smyth County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Smyth County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $6M EAL), Landslide (Low, $30K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Smyth County compare to other Virginia counties?
Smyth County ranks #26 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Smyth County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Smyth County since 1972, most often 6 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Smyth County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.