Scott County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 42th
Scott County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 42.0, 42th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Scott County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 42.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 42nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Scott County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $124K in expected annual loss and about 1.80 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.82 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Scott County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Scott County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 6 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Scott County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.80 / yr | $124K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $7M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $375K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.76 / yr | $365K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.79 / yr | $39K |
| Drought | Low | 11.80 / yr | $71K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.13 / yr | $126K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $16K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.37 / yr | $211K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $147K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.87 / yr | $28K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $3K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Scott County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Snowstorm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scott County?
Scott County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 42.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 42th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Scott County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $124K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $7M EAL), Avalanche (Very Low, $1K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Scott County compare to other Virginia counties?
Scott County ranks #50 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Scott County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Scott County since 1977, most often 6 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scott County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.