Page County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
Page County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.9, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Page County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Page County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $318K in expected annual loss and about 3.93 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Page County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Page County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Page County ranks #54 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.50 / yr | $8K |
| Drought | Medium | 3.93 / yr | $318K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.30 / yr | $558K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.57 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $46K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $150K |
| Hail | Low | 2.69 / yr | $135K |
| Lightning | Low | 38.68 / yr | $114K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.62 / yr | $146K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.56 / yr | $26K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.19 / yr | $313K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $174K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.91 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Page County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Page County?
Page County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Page County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL), Drought (Medium, $318K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Page County compare to other Virginia counties?
Page County ranks #54 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Page County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Page County since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Page County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.