Manassas Park City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Manassas Park City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.9, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Manassas Park City at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Manassas Park City's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $131K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $288K in expected annual loss and about 5.79 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $104K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Manassas Park City has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Manassas Park City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Manassas Park City ranks #124 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $131K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.79 / yr | $288K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $104K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.27 / yr | $131K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 7.07 / yr | $333K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 9.53 / yr | $22K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $188K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.77 / yr | $34K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $67K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $5K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $137 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.39 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Manassas Park City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (5), Hurricane (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Manassas Park City?
Manassas Park City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Manassas Park City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very Low, $131K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $288K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $104K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Manassas Park City compare to other Virginia counties?
Manassas Park City ranks #124 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Manassas Park City had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Manassas Park City since 1993, most often 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Manassas Park City's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.