Lexington City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 4th
Lexington City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.7, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lexington City carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 3.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $132K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $184K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $161K in expected annual loss and about 42.56 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lexington City has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Lexington City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 4 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Lexington City ranks #126 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $132K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $184K |
| Lightning | Low | 42.56 / yr | $161K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $76 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.74 / yr | $11K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.94 / yr | $115K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.11 / yr | $130K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.74 / yr | $35K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $701 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.77 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lexington City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 1996 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm Cond |
| January 1996 | Snowstorm | Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm) |
| July 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lexington City?
Lexington City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lexington City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very Low, $132K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $184K EAL), Lightning (Low, $161K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lexington City compare to other Virginia counties?
Lexington City ranks #126 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lexington City had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Lexington City since 1972, most often 4 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lexington City's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.