Henrico County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Henrico County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.4, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $58M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Henrico County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 43.35 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $436K in expected annual loss and about 5.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $58M in expected annual loss for a population of 334K.
Beyond physical exposure, Henrico County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Henrico County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 9 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Henrico County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $11M |
| Lightning | High | 43.35 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.08 / yr | $436K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.28 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $31M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.24 / yr | $660K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.73 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Medium | 5.17 / yr | $926K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Low | 2.36 / yr | $327K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.69 / yr | $10K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $63K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Henrico County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Snowstorm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes Associated W Td Gaston |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Henrico County?
Henrico County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Henrico County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $11M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $436K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Henrico County compare to other Virginia counties?
Henrico County ranks #3 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Henrico County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Henrico County since 1969, most often 9 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Henrico County's $58M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.