Fairfax City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Fairfax City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.3, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fairfax City carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 5.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Fairfax City's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $385K in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $372K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $383K in expected annual loss and about 5.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fairfax City has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Fairfax City has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Fairfax City ranks #121 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $385K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $372K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.89 / yr | $383K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.46 / yr | $211K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 8.29 / yr | $397K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.79 / yr | $39K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $359K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.05 / yr | $93K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $28K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $671 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.66 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fairfax City has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fairfax City?
Fairfax City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fairfax City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $385K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $372K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $383K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fairfax City compare to other Virginia counties?
Fairfax City ranks #121 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fairfax City had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Fairfax City since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fairfax City's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.