McNairy County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
McNairy County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.5, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McNairy County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.58 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 1.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 26K.
Beyond physical exposure, McNairy County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: McNairy County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 11 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, McNairy County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.58 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.19 / yr | $8K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 14.58 / yr | $704K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.21 / yr | $709K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $135K |
| Lightning | Low | 59.80 / yr | $188K |
| Drought | Low | 12.60 / yr | $65K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.63 / yr | $24K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.25 / yr | $55K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.16 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McNairy County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Winter Storm (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McNairy County?
McNairy County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McNairy County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $5M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McNairy County compare to other Tennessee counties?
McNairy County ranks #53 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McNairy County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for McNairy County since 1975, most often 11 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McNairy County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.