Fayette County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
Fayette County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.0, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Fayette County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Fayette County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.47 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 17.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 42K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fayette County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Fayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1994, including 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Fayette County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $13M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 17.05 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.73 / yr | $305K |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.18 / yr | $505K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.47 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.84 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $78K |
| Drought | Low | 9.57 / yr | $209K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $62K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.30 / yr | $347K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.30 / yr | $80K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.63 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1994, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fayette County?
Fayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $13M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fayette County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Fayette County ranks #18 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fayette County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Fayette County since 1994, most often 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fayette County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.