Cocke County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Cocke County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.5, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cocke County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 54.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cocke County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $85K in expected annual loss and about 1.58 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $841K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $353K in expected annual loss and about 52.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cocke County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Cocke County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Cocke County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.58 / yr | $85K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $841K |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.95 / yr | $353K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.71 / yr | $8M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $62K |
| Hail | Low | 3.21 / yr | $247K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.81 / yr | $428K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.28 / yr | $69K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.67 / yr | $685K |
| Drought | Low | 21.41 / yr | $108K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.10 / yr | $818K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 9.71 / yr | $14K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $34K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cocke County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (6), Winter Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| March 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cocke County?
Cocke County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cocke County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $85K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $841K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $353K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cocke County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Cocke County ranks #50 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cocke County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Cocke County since 1972, most often 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cocke County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.