Sullivan County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 11th
Sullivan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 10.7, 11th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Sullivan County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 10.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 11th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Sullivan County's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $3K in expected annual loss and about 0.52 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $151K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sullivan County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Sullivan County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Sullivan County ranks #66 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.52 / yr | $3K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $151K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.05 / yr | $25K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 31.03 / yr | $43K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.09 / yr | $84K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $78K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $5K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.74 / yr | $68K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $8K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.90 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sullivan County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (7), Hurricane (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sullivan County?
Sullivan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 10.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 11th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sullivan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very Low, $2K EAL), Landslide (Low, $3K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $151K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sullivan County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Sullivan County ranks #66 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sullivan County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County since 1972, most often 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sullivan County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.