Montgomery County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Montgomery County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.8, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $297M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Montgomery County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 12.40 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 6.99 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $297M in expected annual loss for a population of 856K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Montgomery County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Montgomery County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 12.40 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 6.99 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.89 / yr | $30M |
| Heat Wave | High | 9.59 / yr | $20M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.71 / yr | $193M |
| Tornado | High | 0.25 / yr | $15M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $14M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.44 / yr | $530K |
| Lightning | Medium | 34.57 / yr | $756K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.26 / yr | $6K |
| Drought | Low | 4.10 / yr | $367K |
| Hail | Low | 2.59 / yr | $234K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Flood (7), Severe Storm (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.8 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (Very High, $10M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $30M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Montgomery County ranks #3 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1965, most often 8 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $297M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.