Mifflin County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 69th
Mifflin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.3, 69th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Mifflin County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 69.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 69th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $143K in expected annual loss and about 12.84 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $10K in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mifflin County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Mifflin County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Mifflin County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.50 / yr | $15M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.84 / yr | $143K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.50 / yr | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.38 / yr | $783K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $891K |
| Lightning | Medium | 34.60 / yr | $281K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $774 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $166K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.84 / yr | $170K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $604K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.60 / yr | $61K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.42 / yr | $124K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mifflin County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| March 2003 | Severe Storm | Snow |
| September 1996 | Flood | Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Fran |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mifflin County?
Mifflin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 69th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mifflin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $15M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $143K EAL), Landslide (Low, $10K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mifflin County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Mifflin County ranks #34 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mifflin County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Mifflin County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mifflin County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.