Bradford County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Bradford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.1, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bradford County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Bradford County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 31.03 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 3.25 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $19K in expected annual loss and about 1.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 60K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bradford County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Bradford County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Bradford County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 31.03 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.25 / yr | $28M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.33 / yr | $19K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $561K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $759 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.34 / yr | $83K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $210K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.16 / yr | $700K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.68 / yr | $158K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $565K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.70 / yr | $271K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.01 / yr | $71K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.53 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bradford County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (7), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bradford County?
Bradford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bradford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $28M EAL), Landslide (Low, $19K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bradford County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Bradford County ranks #32 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bradford County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Bradford County since 1972, most often 7 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bradford County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.