Centre County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Centre County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 68.0, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Centre County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 68.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $576K in expected annual loss and about 14.40 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 34.54 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $41K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 158K.
Beyond physical exposure, Centre County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Centre County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Centre County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 14.40 / yr | $576K |
| Lightning | High | 34.54 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.10 / yr | $41K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $19M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $382K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.62 / yr | $570K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.09 / yr | $316K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $893K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.07 / yr | $48K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.21 / yr | $90K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.46 / yr | $244K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Centre County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Centre County?
Centre County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 68.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Centre County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $576K EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $41K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Centre County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Centre County ranks #36 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Centre County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Centre County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Centre County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.