Lawrence County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.1, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lawrence County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $22M in expected annual loss and about 2.29 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $632K in expected annual loss and about 40.36 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $3K in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 86K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lawrence County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Lawrence County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.29 / yr | $22M |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.36 / yr | $632K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.25 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.44 / yr | $533K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.37 / yr | $62K |
| Hail | Low | 4.08 / yr | $250K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $56K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.43 / yr | $61K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $745K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $119K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.53 / yr | $124K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.32 / yr | $164K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| August 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $22M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $632K EAL), Landslide (Low, $3K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Lawrence County ranks #39 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1972, most often 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.