Warren County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.6, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Warren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $21M in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.75 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $6K in expected annual loss and about 0.92 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 39K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Warren County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $21M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.75 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.92 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Medium | 35.86 / yr | $357K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $139K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $364 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 26.53 / yr | $44K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.89 / yr | $507K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $259K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.70 / yr | $17K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $16K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.53 / yr | $21K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| August 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
| June 1972 | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $21M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $6K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Warren County ranks #41 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1972, most often 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.