Josephine County
Oregon — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Josephine County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.2, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $70M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $23M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $12M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.64 / yr | $32M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.99 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 3.40 / yr | $27K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.39 / yr | $172K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $301 |
| Lightning | Low | 5.95 / yr | $88K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $53K |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.48 / yr | $206 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $69K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $15K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $628 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Josephine County?
Josephine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Josephine County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $23M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $12M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $32M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Josephine County compare to other Oregon counties?
Josephine County ranks #10 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Josephine County's $70M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.