Josephine County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Josephine County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.2, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $70M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Josephine County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $32M in expected annual loss and about 0.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $70M in expected annual loss for a population of 88K.
Beyond physical exposure, Josephine County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Josephine County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 12 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Josephine County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $23M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $12M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.64 / yr | $32M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.99 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 3.40 / yr | $27K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.39 / yr | $172K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $301 |
| Lightning | Low | 5.95 / yr | $88K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $53K |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.48 / yr | $206 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $69K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $15K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $628 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Josephine County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (12), Severe Storm (5), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Slater Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Fire | Hugo Road Fire |
| July 2018 | Fire | Garner Fire Complex |
| August 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| August 2016 | Fire | Gold Canyon Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Josephine County?
Josephine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Josephine County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $23M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $12M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $32M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Josephine County compare to other Oregon counties?
Josephine County ranks #10 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Josephine County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Josephine County since 1964, most often 12 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Josephine County's $70M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.