Jackson County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Jackson County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.5, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $122M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Jackson County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $905K in expected annual loss and about 23.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $122M in expected annual loss for a population of 223K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jackson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Jackson County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 12 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Upper Applegate Road Fire (fire), declared in June 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Jackson County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $25M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $35M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 23.52 / yr | $905K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.45 / yr | $6M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.57 / yr | $54M |
| Landslide | Low | 2.86 / yr | $37K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $290 |
| Lightning | Medium | 9.80 / yr | $336K |
| Hail | Low | 0.16 / yr | $202K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $126 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.06 / yr | $265K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Drought | Very Low | 51.60 / yr | $2K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $60K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $30K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jackson County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Upper Applegate Road Fire in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (12), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Fire | Upper Applegate Road Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Almeda Glendower Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | South Obenchain Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Fire | Ramsey Canyon Fire |
| July 2018 | Fire | Garner Fire Complex |
| August 2014 | Fire | Oregon Gulch Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jackson County?
Jackson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jackson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $25M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $35M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $905K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jackson County compare to other Oregon counties?
Jackson County ranks #8 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jackson County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Jackson County since 1964, most often 12 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Upper Applegate Road Fire, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jackson County's $122M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.