Lane County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Lane County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.4, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $221M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lane County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 96.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lane County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $95M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $117M in expected annual loss and about 0.86 events per year; and volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Medium risk — $197K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $221M in expected annual loss for a population of 383K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lane County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lane County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2026.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Lane County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | High | 0.02 / yr | $95M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 0.86 / yr | $117M |
| Volcanic Activity | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $197K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.49 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Medium | 5.47 / yr | $45K |
| Lightning | High | 7.54 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 19.74 / yr | $313K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.32 / yr | $505K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $155K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $650K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.65 / yr | $288K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $482 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.13 / yr | $735K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $119K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $240K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $248K |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.89 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lane County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Fire | Cedar Creek Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Holiday Farm Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lane County?
Lane County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lane County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (High, $95M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $117M EAL), Volcanic Activity (Medium, $197K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lane County compare to other Oregon counties?
Lane County ranks #2 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lane County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Lane County since 1964, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lane County's $221M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.