Lincoln County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Lincoln County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.9, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $59M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $31M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $290K in expected annual loss and about 9.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $498K in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $59M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2026.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Lincoln County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $31M |
| Landslide | Medium | 9.01 / yr | $290K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.24 / yr | $498K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $20M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Tsunami | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $6M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.81 / yr | $901K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.53 / yr | $147K |
| Lightning | Low | 6.25 / yr | $72K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $40 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $86K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $97K |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.14 / yr | $5 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $56K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 8.39 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $5K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (5), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Echo Mountain Fire Complex |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2012 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $31M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $290K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $498K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Oregon counties?
Lincoln County ranks #11 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1964, most often 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $59M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.