Douglas County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Douglas County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.9, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $94M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Douglas County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $106K in expected annual loss and about 7.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $94M in expected annual loss for a population of 111K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Douglas County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 9 for severe storm events and 7 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Douglas County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $8M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $26M |
| Landslide | Medium | 7.52 / yr | $106K |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.29 / yr | $56M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.44 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 18.17 / yr | $190K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $228K |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 5.96 / yr | $490K |
| Lightning | Low | 7.17 / yr | $150K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $320K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.04 / yr | $167K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $62K |
| Drought | Very Low | 36.46 / yr | $906 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $22K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $908 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Fire (7), Flood (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Archie Creek Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Fire | Mile Post 97 Fire |
| July 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $8M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $26M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $106K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Oregon counties?
Douglas County ranks #7 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1964, most often 9 for severe storm events and 7 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $94M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.