Seminole County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Seminole County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.1, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Seminole County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Seminole County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.88 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $520K in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Seminole County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Seminole County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 14 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Seminole County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 9.88 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.28 / yr | $520K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.74 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.76 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 28.80 / yr | $348K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.00 / yr | $85K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.32 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.94 / yr | $459K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $207K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.29 / yr | $155K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Seminole County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Severe Ice Storm (8), Tornado (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Seminole County?
Seminole County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Seminole County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $520K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Seminole County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Seminole County ranks #39 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Seminole County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Seminole County since 1970, most often 14 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Seminole County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.