Mayes County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Mayes County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.6, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $26M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Mayes County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 77.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 7.50 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 23.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $26M in expected annual loss for a population of 39K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mayes County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Mayes County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Mayes County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.43 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 7.50 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 23.26 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.76 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 55.49 / yr | $705K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $508K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.32 / yr | $144K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.17 / yr | $9K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.71 / yr | $12M |
| Drought | Medium | 21.23 / yr | $391K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.74 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 9.16 / yr | $315K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $297K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mayes County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Severe Ice Storm (7), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mayes County?
Mayes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mayes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mayes County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Mayes County ranks #18 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mayes County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Mayes County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mayes County's $26M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.