Noble County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Noble County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.0, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Noble County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 44.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $890K in expected annual loss and about 55.37 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $422K in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Noble County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Noble County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 12 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Noble County ranks #49 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 55.37 / yr | $890K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.94 / yr | $422K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 9.58 / yr | $504K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $187K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 17.89 / yr | $518K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $887 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $77K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.21 / yr | $25K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.94 / yr | $227K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 51.48 / yr | $35K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Noble County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Severe Ice Storm (7), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Noble County?
Noble County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Noble County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $890K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $422K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Noble County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Noble County ranks #49 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Noble County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Noble County since 1973, most often 12 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Noble County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.