Adair County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Adair County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.8, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Adair County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 53.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Adair County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $717K in expected annual loss and about 2.05 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 13.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Adair County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Adair County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 15 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in March 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Adair County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 2.05 / yr | $717K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 13.47 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.56 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.54 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $1K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.63 / yr | $172K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 6.40 / yr | $397K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.00 / yr | $46K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $135K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $25K |
| Hail | Low | 7.75 / yr | $133K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.58 / yr | $442K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 12.45 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Adair County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Severe Ice Storm (6), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Adair County?
Adair County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Adair County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $717K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Adair County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Adair County ranks #43 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Adair County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Adair County since 1970, most often 15 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Adair County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.