Mahoning County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Mahoning County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.6, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Mahoning County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Mahoning County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.40 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.54 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 40.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 229K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mahoning County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Mahoning County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 6 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Mahoning County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 4.40 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.54 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 40.36 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.19 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.14 / yr | $27M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.63 / yr | $243K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.57 / yr | $455K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.74 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $822K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $433K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.79 / yr | $375K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $215 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mahoning County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Biological (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslide |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Flooding, Severe Storms, and High Winds |
| July 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 1992 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mahoning County?
Mahoning County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mahoning County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mahoning County compare to other Ohio counties?
Mahoning County ranks #11 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mahoning County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Mahoning County since 1978, most often 6 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mahoning County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.