Lorain County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Lorain County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.3, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $66M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lorain County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.97 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.78 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $66M in expected annual loss for a population of 313K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lorain County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lorain County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Lorain County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 1.97 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.78 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.57 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.34 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 12.32 / yr | $452K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.21 / yr | $43M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.85 / yr | $698K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.21 / yr | $763K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $83K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $40K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $796 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lorain County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| November 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| August 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lorain County?
Lorain County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lorain County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lorain County compare to other Ohio counties?
Lorain County ranks #9 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lorain County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Lorain County since 1965, most often 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lorain County's $66M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.