Trumbull County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Trumbull County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.5, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $44M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Trumbull County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 84.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.30 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.10 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $44M in expected annual loss for a population of 202K.
Beyond physical exposure, Trumbull County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Trumbull County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Trumbull County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 2.30 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.10 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.28 / yr | $6M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $29M |
| Winter Weather | High | 15.74 / yr | $271K |
| Lightning | High | 40.06 / yr | $747K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $374K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.68 / yr | $985K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $459K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $624K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.68 / yr | $416K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $153 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Trumbull County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Tornado (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| August 2003 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Flooding, Severe Storms, and High Winds |
| August 1992 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| June 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| June 1985 | Tornado | Severe Storms & Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Trumbull County?
Trumbull County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Trumbull County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Tornado (High, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Trumbull County compare to other Ohio counties?
Trumbull County ranks #10 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Trumbull County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Trumbull County since 1969, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Trumbull County's $44M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.