Ward County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Ward County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.8, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ward County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 64.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 20.16 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 21.47 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $944K in expected annual loss and about 0.45 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 70K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ward County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Ward County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 14 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2022.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Ward County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 20.16 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 21.47 / yr | $18M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.45 / yr | $944K |
| Hail | Medium | 1.87 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $578K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.34 / yr | $18K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.60 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.91 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | Low | 21.15 / yr | $53K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $202K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 27.29 / yr | $32K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ward County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Flood (14), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ward County?
Ward County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ward County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $18M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $944K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ward County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Ward County ranks #3 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ward County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Ward County since 1969, most often 14 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ward County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.