Grand Forks County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Grand Forks County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.7, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Grand Forks County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 57.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 23.53 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.39 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 73K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grand Forks County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Grand Forks County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 23 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in October 2025.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Grand Forks County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 23.53 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.86 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.19 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 21.74 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.89 / yr | $12M |
| Tornado | Low | 1.02 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.21 / yr | $255K |
| Lightning | Low | 27.26 / yr | $172K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $538 |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.53 / yr | $18K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grand Forks County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (23), Severe Storm (12), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| October 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grand Forks County?
Grand Forks County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grand Forks County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grand Forks County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Grand Forks County ranks #5 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grand Forks County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Grand Forks County since 1965, most often 23 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grand Forks County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.