Nelson County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 8th
Nelson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.9, 8th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Nelson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 7.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 8th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $676K in expected annual loss and about 3.70 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $283K in expected annual loss and about 0.67 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $116K in expected annual loss and about 22.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nelson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Nelson County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 17 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in October 2025.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Nelson County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 3.70 / yr | $676K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $283K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 22.42 / yr | $116K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $106K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 22.84 / yr | $908K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $256 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.06 / yr | $203K |
| Drought | Very Low | 9.98 / yr | $12K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $193K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $9K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 26.99 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.00 / yr | $460K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nelson County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (17), Severe Storm (12), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2023 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| October 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nelson County?
Nelson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 8th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nelson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $676K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $283K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $116K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nelson County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Nelson County ranks #36 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nelson County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Nelson County since 1965, most often 17 for flood events and 12 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nelson County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.