Foster County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

7.4

National percentile: 7th

Foster County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.4, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Foster County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 7.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $153K in expected annual loss and about 22.37 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $920K in expected annual loss and about 1.57 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 20.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.

Beyond physical exposure, Foster County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Foster County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 12 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in September 2025.

Among 53 North Dakota counties, Foster County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $4M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 3K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $153K/yr
Medium $920K/yr
Low $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Winter Weather Medium 22.37 / yr$153K
Strong Wind Medium 1.57 / yr$920K
Cold Wave Low 20.21 / yr$2M
Hail Low 3.16 / yr$366K
Ice Storm Low 0.73 / yr$116K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$44K
Drought Very Low 11.64 / yr$11K
Tornado Very Low 0.33 / yr$212K
Landslide Very Low 0.06 / yr$37
Heat Wave Very Low 1.32 / yr$13K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.25 / yr$525K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$1K
Lightning Very Low 28.24 / yr$5K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Foster County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds in September 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (12), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
September 2025Severe StormSevere Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds
July 2022Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Flooding
July 2020FloodFlooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
January 2020FloodFlooding
May 2013FloodFlooding
May 2011FloodFlooding
April 2010FloodFlooding
March 2010FloodFlooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Foster County?

Foster County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Foster County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $153K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $920K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Foster County compare to other North Dakota counties?

Foster County ranks #37 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Foster County had?

FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Foster County since 1969, most often 12 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds, declared in September 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Foster County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.